Interesting read. I never thought about the time addition to my transferring from Purdue to Indiana U of PA. But there was delay, and that was lost opportunity to work. Students transferring may not have all credits accepted, etc. So yes, there would be a cost benefit from on staying, getting the education, and entering the work force.
I truly believe there is the right college fit for every young adult seeking that path.o Having the tools and support to truly evaluate cost and benefits of this decisions is critical. Thanks for the reminder Stephen Day.
I'd like to clarify something. If the average annual income gap is driven largely by transferring men earning $0 for 2.5 years out of 11, wouldn't we do better at predicting lifetime earnings by looking at the different groups' incomes *at the end* of the 11-year period, along with the differing rates of increase leading up to that point? We might even be better off looking at where income lands after a certain number of *working* years, discounting the unemployment period, unless there's reason to believe unemployment will continue to be higher for upper-tier graduates. I admit, though, I may be misunderstanding the scenario: you said the 2.5 year gap was largely due to delayed graduation, yet also that it tended to take place several years after graduation. By definition, a delay in graduation occurs before graduation. Can you tell me what I'm missing?
Setting aside these questions, I wonder about the reason for a pay gap. For one, perhaps instead of suggesting the problem is male applicants being overconfident (or ambitious, aspirational, or determined, depending on how one wants to frame it), we might find the problem in schools that admit students who aren't likely to succeed. (Didn't we take issue with mortgage companies in the mid 2000s giving out loans that information-deprived buyers were unable to pay back?) Maybe the schools using the wrong techniques for predicting success. Or is school success even a predictor of income here? I'm not sure if Miller's study compared the *post-transfer* GPAs of the students who ended up with lower vs. higher incomes in the years that followed. If the workers who ended up making less money did not have particularly low GPAs *at the schools they transferred to,* we may need another explanation. (We might also wonder how students thinking of transferring can know if their GPAs are marginal; there's an information asymmetry here.)
Standardized test scores could be another way to go here: the literature is pretty clear that the SAT and ACT are better predictors of college success than grades -- a fact that's been shared a lot lately given the SCUSA affirmative action case and how schools can achieve diversity.
Yikes, that is a lot of measurement questions that I think Dr. Miller would be better off answering. Not sure if she's up for it.
Trying to answer things you brought up
1) she compared GPAs before transfer.
2) the lower wage is a yearly average. Not sure how that number varies over time, which I'm sure it does
3) the comment male overconfidence was a one-sentence quote in the paper. Just speculation. Yeah, it could be other things, including colleges using bad criteria for deciding transfers. In fact, given the poor outcome, this might be necessarily the case. The "why" is just one question of many that the paper brings up. Her main finding was the income discrepancy, then she digs a level deeper by trying to find the mechanism, and comes up with the reasons she listed in the abstract. But she'd have to go another level deeper to find why the income discrepancy is concentrated in men. I think that's a question for another study.
4) actually, I was a little confused about the "delayed graduation" vs "gap in work later in life" difference, too. I think there is some of both.
I sort of don't want to reach out to Dr. Miller to ask, since she just got a new job and has to deal with that comes with moving. But she is a subscriber, so maybe she'll throw us a bone and answer :-)
Thanks. I think it’s a question of how much we can draw from one study. I am not sure Miller could have done all the stuff I’m curious about in one paper, but I think that means the conclusion should be less affirmative.
As I look at it more, some questions are answered. E.g., she says the income gap widens over time. I'd have to look closer to see how, then, the reason for this gap would be 2.5 years of unemployment. Is it that employers don't like it that job applicants were unemployed for a while? Digging into all of methodology would take a lot of time. I suspect that some of this stuff would have been in the sections I looked at if she had done it -- like if she had looked at both pre-transfer and post-transfer GPAs rather than just the former.
Great comment, and thanks for sharing your experience. I think this new research will help us calibrate our advice to high school students. Not to scare them away from transferring, but just like you said, to let them know the risks and benefits.
Interesting read. I never thought about the time addition to my transferring from Purdue to Indiana U of PA. But there was delay, and that was lost opportunity to work. Students transferring may not have all credits accepted, etc. So yes, there would be a cost benefit from on staying, getting the education, and entering the work force.
Appreciate that.
Today l'll be introducing my subscribers
to a huge,p.r.o.f.i.t.a.b.I.e l.n.v.e.s.t.m.e.n.t Chat my 𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗺 👇🏻
Daysteph
I truly believe there is the right college fit for every young adult seeking that path.o Having the tools and support to truly evaluate cost and benefits of this decisions is critical. Thanks for the reminder Stephen Day.
Appreciate that.
Today l'll be introducing my subscribers
to a huge,p.r.o.f.i.t.a.b.I.e l.n.v.e.s.t.m.e.n.t Chat my 𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗺 👇🏻
Daysteph
I'd like to clarify something. If the average annual income gap is driven largely by transferring men earning $0 for 2.5 years out of 11, wouldn't we do better at predicting lifetime earnings by looking at the different groups' incomes *at the end* of the 11-year period, along with the differing rates of increase leading up to that point? We might even be better off looking at where income lands after a certain number of *working* years, discounting the unemployment period, unless there's reason to believe unemployment will continue to be higher for upper-tier graduates. I admit, though, I may be misunderstanding the scenario: you said the 2.5 year gap was largely due to delayed graduation, yet also that it tended to take place several years after graduation. By definition, a delay in graduation occurs before graduation. Can you tell me what I'm missing?
Setting aside these questions, I wonder about the reason for a pay gap. For one, perhaps instead of suggesting the problem is male applicants being overconfident (or ambitious, aspirational, or determined, depending on how one wants to frame it), we might find the problem in schools that admit students who aren't likely to succeed. (Didn't we take issue with mortgage companies in the mid 2000s giving out loans that information-deprived buyers were unable to pay back?) Maybe the schools using the wrong techniques for predicting success. Or is school success even a predictor of income here? I'm not sure if Miller's study compared the *post-transfer* GPAs of the students who ended up with lower vs. higher incomes in the years that followed. If the workers who ended up making less money did not have particularly low GPAs *at the schools they transferred to,* we may need another explanation. (We might also wonder how students thinking of transferring can know if their GPAs are marginal; there's an information asymmetry here.)
Standardized test scores could be another way to go here: the literature is pretty clear that the SAT and ACT are better predictors of college success than grades -- a fact that's been shared a lot lately given the SCUSA affirmative action case and how schools can achieve diversity.
Yikes, that is a lot of measurement questions that I think Dr. Miller would be better off answering. Not sure if she's up for it.
Trying to answer things you brought up
1) she compared GPAs before transfer.
2) the lower wage is a yearly average. Not sure how that number varies over time, which I'm sure it does
3) the comment male overconfidence was a one-sentence quote in the paper. Just speculation. Yeah, it could be other things, including colleges using bad criteria for deciding transfers. In fact, given the poor outcome, this might be necessarily the case. The "why" is just one question of many that the paper brings up. Her main finding was the income discrepancy, then she digs a level deeper by trying to find the mechanism, and comes up with the reasons she listed in the abstract. But she'd have to go another level deeper to find why the income discrepancy is concentrated in men. I think that's a question for another study.
4) actually, I was a little confused about the "delayed graduation" vs "gap in work later in life" difference, too. I think there is some of both.
I sort of don't want to reach out to Dr. Miller to ask, since she just got a new job and has to deal with that comes with moving. But she is a subscriber, so maybe she'll throw us a bone and answer :-)
Thanks. I think it’s a question of how much we can draw from one study. I am not sure Miller could have done all the stuff I’m curious about in one paper, but I think that means the conclusion should be less affirmative.
Did you get a chance to look at the paper itself? I linked it, and I don't think it's behind a paywall for the public.
As I look at it more, some questions are answered. E.g., she says the income gap widens over time. I'd have to look closer to see how, then, the reason for this gap would be 2.5 years of unemployment. Is it that employers don't like it that job applicants were unemployed for a while? Digging into all of methodology would take a lot of time. I suspect that some of this stuff would have been in the sections I looked at if she had done it -- like if she had looked at both pre-transfer and post-transfer GPAs rather than just the former.
(I wanted to set a record for longest comment.)
Appreciate that.
Today l'll be introducing my subscribers
to a huge,p.r.o.f.i.t.a.b.I.e l.n.v.e.s.t.m.e.n.t Chat my 𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗺 👇🏻
Daysteph
Great comment, and thanks for sharing your experience. I think this new research will help us calibrate our advice to high school students. Not to scare them away from transferring, but just like you said, to let them know the risks and benefits.